Thursday, March 5, 2009

Proof: When Obama Speaks the Market Drops

I was reading about the great parties that the Obama's have been throwing at the White House each Wednesday since his inauguration, and it got me thinking.

If Obama is partying on Wednesdays, he's not giving public speeches. So I decided to crunch some numbers.



Right away some trends stand out.
  • Mondays lose 4 out of 5 weeks
  • Tuesdays lose 4 out of 7 weeks
  • Wednesdays only lose 2 out of 7 weeks
  • Thursdays lose 4 out of 6 weeks
  • Fridays lose 5 out of 6 weeks
So Wednesdays are already better investments than other days of the week, unless the average or net gain/loss is shows another day that might be better.

It doesn't.



  • If you only invested in Dow stocks only on Wednesdays you would have earned 481.49 points on your stock.
  • If you had invested on the day of Obama's Inauguration and held until now, you would have a loss of -1,405.37 points.
  • Thus investing on Wednesdays, the day Obama does not give speeches, is much safer than any other day of the week.
Some other interesting facts these charts show:
  • 1/20 - Dow shows second largest one-day loss (-332.13) on day of Obama's biggest speech of his Presidency
  • 2/9 - Obama delivers his prime time press conference after markets close
  • 2/10 - Markets respond with largest one-day loss (-381.99) of the Obama administration.
  • 2/24 - Obama delivers address to joint session of congress after markets close
  • 2/25 - The next day Dow shows only 2nd Wednesday loss since 1/20/09 (The other was on 2/4/09)
So the conclusion is pretty clear:

Days when President Obama does not speak are better days for the market than days that he does speak.

And if Obama gives a major address during the day, the market drops during that day's trading period, but if he delivers a major prime-time address, the market tends to fall dramatically during the following day's trading period.

If President Obama wishes to fix the falling market, the data shows, he needs to stop speaking.

But that's not his goal at all.



Note: this was written before the markets closed on 3/4/09, thus the limited data set

3 comments:

  1. Obama's saying that watching the stock market gyrations is like watching political tracking polls?? If I'm a politician, and my poll numbers had tanked 18% in just over one month like the market has, then I'd be more than a bit worried. I'd be horrified... Good to know Obama couldn't really care less about (and I'm quoting Jim Cramer here) the most massive destruction of wealth this country has ever seen.

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  2. Yeah you're right about the drop in Obama's political poll (ie. the stock market), but what I don't get is with the market tanking how his approval rating is still in the 60's. Is the honeymoon really going so well that 60% of Americans don't understand their new husband is a lying, cheating, spousal abuser (to continue the honeymoon metaphor).

    I'm sure Obama is a wonderful husband and father, but as the leader of the free world, he was too inexperienced and he certainly doesn't seem to be growing into the position.

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  3. In the video about the reprehensibly idiotic tracking poll speech, did anyone notice that the DOW dropped seven points in about fifteen seconds?

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